Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220128 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30     73.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  20.1  20.1  21.6  21.1  24.9  28.8  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  21.0  25.0  26.0  23.0  20.0  20.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  95.0  87.0  57.0  29.0  10.0   0.0   6.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  65.0  68.0  62.0  55.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       13.3%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        5.5%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.4%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        5.4%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%        8.5%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        7.1%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        4.0%        4.5%