Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220128 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30     72.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  17.1  19.6  19.4  20.4  31.7  43.4  54.3  F  F  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  17.0  17.0  23.0  27.0  30.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  53.0  47.0  49.0  68.0  57.0  30.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  65.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  41.0  35.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0   3.0   5.0   8.0   6.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        4.2%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.8%       26.4%       17.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       14.8%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       14.8%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%       14.8%        9.7%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       21.8%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.2%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%       13.0%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        4.3%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%        3.2%        4.4%