Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220129 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  14.3  15.6  15.6  25.1  39.7  48.4  48.4  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  24.0  24.0  27.0  30.0  33.0  37.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  28.0  42.0  49.0  48.0  36.0  32.0  24.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  50.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -6.0   0.0   4.0  15.0  20.0  11.0  F  N  F  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.0%       25.5%       23.8%
 25kt / 24h       45.8%       68.2%       57.0%
 30kt / 24h       36.3%       62.8%       49.5%
 35kt / 24h       36.3%       62.8%       49.5%
 40kt / 24h       36.3%       62.0%       49.1%
 45kt / 36h       34.9%       57.0%       46.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       37.9%       18.9%
 55kt / 48h       17.0%       28.0%       22.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%       12.5%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%        5.6%        5.4%