Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220129 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     70.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  16.2  15.0  20.9  30.5  43.1  53.9  53.9  F  F  F  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  30.0  31.0  33.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  94.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  60.0  51.0  59.0  34.0   0.0 -11.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  60.0  54.0  48.0  44.0  39.0  35.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  14.0  23.0  24.0  39.0  29.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.3%       47.3%       54.3%
 25kt / 24h       70.6%       81.3%       75.9%
 30kt / 24h       70.6%       81.3%       75.9%
 35kt / 24h       70.6%       81.3%       75.9%
 40kt / 24h       70.6%       79.8%       75.2%
 45kt / 36h       42.6%       60.3%       51.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       43.1%       21.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.8%       26.4%       19.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        9.0%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%