Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220130 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     67.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  26.6  24.4  27.1  37.0  37.4  41.9  37.1  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  36.0  35.0  36.0  37.0  39.0  42.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  56.0  38.0  27.0  34.0   8.0 -26.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  50.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.4%       14.7%       24.6%
 25kt / 24h       31.4%       35.0%       33.2%
 30kt / 24h       25.4%       29.5%       27.5%
 35kt / 24h       23.5%       29.5%       26.5%
 40kt / 24h       23.5%       28.5%       26.0%
 45kt / 36h       25.5%       10.8%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        3.3%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%