Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220130 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80     66.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  23.5  27.3  34.6  31.6  23.1  21.0  16.4  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  36.0  33.0  33.0  32.0  33.0  34.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  64.6  62.3  62.3  57.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  11.0   5.0   7.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  50.0  48.0  41.0  38.0  41.0  41.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.8%       16.5%       31.7%
 25kt / 24h       21.9%       23.6%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h       21.9%       18.0%       19.9%
 35kt / 24h       21.9%       18.0%       19.9%
 40kt / 24h       15.9%       17.4%       16.6%
 45kt / 36h       30.9%        9.0%       19.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%