Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220130 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  30.0  33.8  36.2  40.1  42.2  41.8  43.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  35.0  36.0  37.0  40.0  42.0  43.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  59.6  57.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  -3.0  42.0  36.0  11.0   0.0  35.0   7.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  52.0  59.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   5.0   1.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%        2.5%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        4.5%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        2.3%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        2.3%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        2.2%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.0%        1.0%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%