Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220131 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70     63.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  34.1  33.2  33.1  39.4  33.2  39.2  33.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  39.0  40.0  42.0  44.0  45.0  48.0  49.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  67.3  69.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  13.0  21.0  13.0   2.0  37.0  -2.0 -17.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  56.0  63.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -8.0  -8.0  -1.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.7%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        5.2%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.2%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        3.2%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        0.9%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%