Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220131 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90     62.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  37.3  34.3  28.9  15.3  19.6  17.1  10.6  U  U  U  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  40.0  43.0  41.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  77.3  77.3  77.3  72.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  26.0  40.0  24.0  17.0 -11.0  39.0  30.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  48.0  48.0  53.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        3.5%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       12.7%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        9.1%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        9.1%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        8.0%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%        4.3%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        3.6%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        1.8%        2.8%