Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220201 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40     62.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  32.9  29.8  24.3  19.0  13.5   8.8  13.3  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  36.0  38.0  38.0  40.0  43.0  44.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  89.3  87.0  82.3  82.3  82.3  80.1  80.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  53.0  42.0  42.0  37.0   2.0  49.0  58.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  56.0  54.0  58.0  50.0  54.0  60.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        3.8%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.1%       14.8%       11.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       10.2%        8.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       10.2%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        9.7%        6.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%        4.2%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        4.9%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%        2.6%        5.2%