Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220201 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90     61.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  30.2  30.7  26.8  24.4  21.9  21.1  29.7  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  39.0  39.0  40.0  43.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  84.3  82.0  77.3  77.3  77.3  77.3  77.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  28.0  41.0  63.0  34.0 -30.0  12.0  30.0  U  U  N  N  N VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  59.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -8.0  -8.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.6%       11.4%       15.0%
 25kt / 24h       21.6%       27.7%       24.6%
 30kt / 24h       16.8%       22.9%       19.9%
 35kt / 24h       14.5%       22.9%       18.7%
 40kt / 24h       12.4%       21.2%       16.8%
 45kt / 36h       15.3%       10.1%       12.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.5%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        5.2%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        2.0%        1.9%