Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220201 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     60.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  26.5  23.9  23.0  16.4  15.8  15.6  21.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  38.0  40.0  42.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  45.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         74.3  69.6  67.3  67.3  67.3  67.3  67.3  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  36.0  53.0  52.0  14.0  39.0  53.0  71.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  50.0  48.0  51.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.7%       13.2%       21.9%
 25kt / 24h       25.1%       28.6%       26.9%
 30kt / 24h       20.0%       24.1%       22.0%
 35kt / 24h       19.5%       24.1%       21.8%
 40kt / 24h       15.6%       22.1%       18.9%
 45kt / 36h       36.3%       16.9%       26.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%        5.6%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%