Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220202 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     58.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  23.6  22.2  17.4  21.2  16.1  19.2  18.9  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  40.0  41.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  40.0  37.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         35.1  32.9  30.7  30.7  32.9  35.1  37.3  24.4  U VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  56.0  32.0  13.0  14.0   5.0  70.0  50.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  52.0  55.0  51.0  62.0  61.0  73.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.0%        8.3%       21.6%
 25kt / 24h       12.3%       10.2%       11.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%