Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220202 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50     57.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.1  12.2  14.5  15.7  17.8  17.3  28.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  41.0  42.0  41.0  42.0  43.0  41.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         35.1  32.9  30.7  32.9  35.1  39.6  32.9 -24.1  U VU VU VU  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  30.0   5.0  11.0  33.0  45.0  70.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  53.0  59.0  65.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0   2.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0  12.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       49.3%       15.6%       32.4%
 25kt / 24h       21.5%       19.7%       20.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%