Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220202 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.90     56.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  19.4  18.2  20.2  19.8  20.0  25.1  22.3  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  43.0  44.0  44.0  43.0  41.0   0.0  36.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.9  35.1  35.1  35.1  39.6  32.9  -6.4  45.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  18.0  29.0  34.0  50.0  16.0  72.0  36.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  64.0  66.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  77.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -7.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  25.0 -36.0  N  F  F  N  N  N VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.6%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%