Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220203 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.10     55.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  14.2  15.7  19.3  18.1  21.9  24.7  19.5  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  42.0  42.0   0.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         37.9  40.1  40.1  42.3  44.6  33.6 -19.1  50.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  28.0  39.0  58.0  77.0  20.0  39.0  31.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0  14.0   8.0 -34.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.7%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        3.4%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.3%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%