Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.00     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  16.2  20.0  18.4  14.4  18.0  20.1  14.9  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  41.0   0.0   0.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         37.9  40.1  40.1  44.6  42.3  -9.6 -49.9  50.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  55.0  73.0  62.0  53.0  37.0  58.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  66.0  63.0  65.0  76.0  73.0  76.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  26.0 -15.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        1.9%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        3.9%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        2.4%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%