Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220203 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.40     54.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  15.3  12.4  17.4  16.9  17.8  23.3  25.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  42.0  40.0  40.0  38.0   0.0  49.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.1  50.1  54.6  52.3  39.4   3.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  48.0 111.0  70.0  41.0  21.0  35.0  94.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0  25.0   7.0   8.0   5.0  N  N  N  N VU  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.4%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%        8.0%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        5.6%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        5.3%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%