Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220204 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.40     53.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  18.3  16.3  20.5  14.9  14.0  20.7  22.6  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  43.0  41.0  39.0  37.0  29.5  51.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         52.3  54.6  52.3  47.9  22.7  31.6  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  86.0  64.0  33.0  75.0  39.0  41.0  70.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  21.0  -4.0   4.0  14.0  N  N  N  N VU  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        2.6%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%        6.9%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        4.8%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        4.5%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%