Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220204 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.40     53.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  16.1  19.8  14.3  15.0  17.3  21.8  20.3  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  40.0  39.0  38.0   0.0  60.0  48.0  37.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         44.6  42.3  33.6  29.4 -42.3  18.0  50.0  50.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  64.0  33.0  52.0  57.0  20.0  36.0  69.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0  12.0  16.0  -4.0   6.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  U  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.4%       10.8%       18.1%
 25kt / 24h       15.7%       14.1%       14.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.2%        9.7%       11.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%