Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220204 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.60     52.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  16.3  12.1  13.2  16.5  17.6  13.5  29.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  39.0  38.0   0.0  30.0  52.0  44.0  38.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         35.7  33.6  19.8 -12.1  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  63.0  82.0  53.0  25.0  54.0  51.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   8.0  14.0   4.0 -19.0  -7.0  -4.0 -29.0  N  U  U  N VF  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        2.8%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons