Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220205 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20     50.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.9  11.7  11.3  16.7  19.2  14.1  21.7  28.2  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  49.0  45.0  33.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.4   1.7 -28.6 -12.2  65.0  65.0  65.0  50.7  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  34.0  14.0  18.0  44.0  54.0  69.0  48.0  F  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   1.0  -7.0 -22.0  -7.0  -9.0 -11.0 -18.0  U  N  F VF  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        0.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons