Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220205 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70     49.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  11.5  15.4  21.7  21.5  22.4  28.9  35.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0  53.0  40.0  33.0  22.0  12.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -9.3 -25.9  -3.0  36.6  65.0  64.3  44.4  31.2 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  29.0  32.0  66.0  56.0  52.0  83.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  61.0  54.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  -1.0 -11.0 -10.0 -13.0  -6.0 -12.0  -7.0  U  N  F  F VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons