Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220205 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.00     48.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  17.5  23.0  22.6  20.6  27.9  29.5  48.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0  26.5  53.0  46.0  33.0  22.0  15.0   5.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -17.6  21.1  65.0  65.0  65.0  46.5  33.0  22.7 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  48.0  45.0  50.0  50.0  71.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -6.0  -8.0  -2.0 -13.0 -14.0 -18.0 -22.0  F  F  F  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons