Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220206 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30     46.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  22.6  25.2  19.3  22.7  31.0  41.1  53.4  F  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  54.0  46.0  39.0  37.0  22.0  13.0   6.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.3 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  82.4  71.2  66.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  44.0  42.0  34.0  53.0  53.0  58.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  58.0  53.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -8.0 -13.0 -18.0  -8.0  -8.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%