Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220206 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.00     45.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  24.6  23.6  20.5  25.2  28.9  35.0  30.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  47.0  44.0  38.0  31.0  19.0  13.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.5 110.0 110.0 110.0  97.9  83.5  78.0  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  40.0  42.0  32.0  46.0  69.0  78.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  66.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  10.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  -8.0  F  U  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        0.0%        0.7%