Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220206 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.30     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  23.3  29.7  33.2  38.5  54.1  49.9  52.6  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  33.0  26.0  22.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 117.3 106.5  86.0  75.0  66.7  42.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  32.0  54.0  70.0  52.0  65.0  -8.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -8.0 -19.0  -8.0 -28.0  13.0  43.0  F  F  F VF  F VF  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%