Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220207 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.10     42.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  26.4  36.1  37.4  45.2  55.6  49.5  55.4  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  32.0  26.0  22.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 122.0 112.9 102.4  84.3  75.0  59.3  40.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  48.0  68.0  81.0  66.0  27.0  40.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -11.0 -16.0 -14.0 -10.0 -13.0  43.0  55.0  F  F VF VF  F VF VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%