Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220207 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.70     41.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  34.8  31.6  36.1  48.9  46.5  52.9  49.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  22.0  18.0  15.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 108.6 100.5  93.0  81.1  66.7  42.4  38.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  76.0  63.0  56.0  68.0  20.0  33.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  61.0  62.0  56.0  57.0  53.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -16.0 -10.0 -15.0 -27.0  16.0   0.0  69.0 VF VF  F VF VF  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%