Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220208 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.60     42.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  45.7  47.9  44.7  45.3  40.0  43.8  41.2  U VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.6  76.5  68.0  57.0  39.2  32.7  20.1  10.8  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  48.0  10.0  18.0  42.0  48.0  40.0   8.0  F  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  56.0  53.0  46.0  43.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -22.0 -33.0 -29.0  -7.0   6.0 -95.0-182.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons