Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092022 220131 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00    152.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  22.2  20.6  24.4  25.1  26.7  19.2  15.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  53.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  18.0  28.0  25.0 100.0 109.0  92.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  -8.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        3.1%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.0%       21.7%       14.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        9.6%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        9.0%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        9.0%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       22.4%       15.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%       13.0%       13.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.1%        6.7%        8.4%
 65kt / 72h       44.6%       25.3%       35.0%