Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092022 220201 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    152.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  23.0  26.1  32.1  31.8  25.6  22.1  21.4  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  17.0  -3.0  40.0  89.0  63.0  49.0  18.0  U  U  U  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -9.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.7%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       16.1%       10.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        6.5%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        5.9%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        5.9%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%       15.9%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%        8.2%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        4.3%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h       23.7%       18.1%       20.9%