Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092022 220201 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20    153.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  28.3  34.9  30.7  26.0  23.0  25.0  22.2  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  56.0  53.0  45.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  29.0  60.0  80.0  55.0  53.0  58.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  62.0  65.0  62.0  67.0  71.0  69.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       14.3%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.7%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       14.4%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%        9.3%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        4.1%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h       24.5%       15.0%       19.7%