Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092022 220201 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    153.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  29.6  26.6  25.9  25.1  23.6  24.6  22.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  57.0  49.0  36.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  39.0  49.0  52.0  92.0  70.0  54.0  75.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  67.0  69.0  73.0  74.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        7.7%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.6%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        7.8%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.4%        5.8%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        2.2%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h       24.2%       10.9%       17.6%