Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092022 220202 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00    154.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  26.8  26.1  18.4  16.0  15.8  17.3  16.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  50.0  41.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  65.0  92.0  61.0  87.0 126.0  65.0  89.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  73.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0 -21.0 -22.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       11.6%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.9%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.4%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       16.8%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.7%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h       20.9%       15.0%       18.0%
 70kt / 48h       12.1%        8.2%       10.1%
 65kt / 72h       49.1%       37.9%       43.5%