Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092022 220203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    158.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  18.2  18.8  15.2  13.7  15.9  13.6  23.1  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  42.0  40.0  37.0  28.0  22.0  17.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 135.1 135.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  77.0 100.0  88.0  95.0  94.0  75.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  78.0  79.0  82.0  83.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -5.0  -8.0  -3.0  -9.0  -9.0  -4.0   5.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       15.4%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.0%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.3%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.3%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%       30.7%       18.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.5%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h       24.6%       22.8%       23.7%
 70kt / 48h       11.9%       18.2%       15.0%
 65kt / 72h       29.5%       41.9%       35.7%