Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092022 220203 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20    161.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  17.1  13.7  14.7  12.1  12.5  19.3  27.2  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  31.0  30.0  31.0  26.0  25.0  21.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  72.0  48.0  78.0  86.0  85.0  54.0  59.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0  -4.0   6.0   3.0   6.0  19.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       18.1%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        6.4%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        5.6%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.6%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%       34.7%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.4%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       25.8%       27.4%       26.6%
 70kt / 48h       11.8%       20.4%       16.1%
 65kt / 72h       30.4%       40.4%       35.4%