Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102022 220204 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     83.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  31.3  26.5  24.1  23.7  35.4  37.6  38.3  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 117.9 117.9 113.6 111.5 107.4 107.4  99.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  80.0  48.0  32.0 -15.0  37.0  22.0  66.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  57.0  61.0  66.0  61.0  57.0  46.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -19.0 -18.0 -18.0 -15.0 -14.0 -21.0 -13.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       11.6%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.5%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        4.2%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.1%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       13.1%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%