Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102022 220205 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.00     83.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  30.4  23.2  25.8  30.1  24.0  30.3  35.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 110.7 108.6 106.5 102.4 102.4  94.8  96.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  25.0  21.0  18.0  17.0  36.0  50.0   6.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  52.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -15.0 -16.0 -14.0  -7.0  -9.0  -8.0  -8.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%