Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102022 220205 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  26.5  24.7  29.0  31.0  40.3  44.0  49.1  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  98.0  98.0  94.4  89.3  92.7  96.2  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  -1.0  -8.0   6.0  24.0  54.0  39.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  59.0  55.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 -21.0  -6.0  -8.0 -10.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons