Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102022 220205 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10     82.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  19.2  23.3  25.9  29.9  36.9  43.2  48.8  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  94.4  91.0  84.6  80.0  83.0  71.7  67.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  13.0  15.0  23.0  41.0  49.0  75.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -10.0  -9.0 -18.0 -21.0 -12.0 -21.0 -18.0 VF  F  F VF VF  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons