Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102022 220206 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.20     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  31.4  32.4  33.0  44.8  47.1  35.5  32.6  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.8  91.0  87.7  91.0  92.7  94.4  99.8 103.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0   4.0  21.0  31.0  44.0  35.0   4.0 -33.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0   0.0  -9.0 -10.0   5.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0 VF  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons