Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102022 220206 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.70     79.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  34.2  37.7  46.0  45.2  31.6  28.5  28.1  U  U  U VU VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.1  86.1  86.1  89.3  91.0  94.4 101.6  99.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  14.0  17.0  19.0   9.0 -13.0 -33.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  43.0  36.0  41.0  38.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -11.0 -13.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  10.0  F  F VF  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons