Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102022 220206 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.20     78.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  33.8  36.5  40.5  35.6  32.0  26.5  33.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  87.7  87.7  89.3  89.3  91.0  96.2  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  21.0  33.0  19.0  18.0 -18.0  -1.0  20.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  47.0  43.0  41.0  39.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -14.0 -14.0 -18.0 -22.0 -17.0  -6.0   1.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons