Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102022 220207 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.70     77.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  46.9  49.4  49.2  40.2  28.1  27.4  32.3  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.1  91.1  91.1  92.7  94.3 101.2 104.8 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  44.0   9.0  21.0 -25.0 -32.0  -5.0 -35.0  U  N  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  43.0  40.0  41.0  43.0  39.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -10.0 -12.0  -6.0  -9.0  -5.0   9.0  13.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons