Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102022 220207 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.10     75.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.5  51.4  52.3  44.5  34.6  28.3  36.2  34.1 VU VU VU VU  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  92.7  92.7  94.3  97.7 103.0 106.6 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  38.0  60.0  35.0 -14.0  -7.0  34.0 -54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  38.0  37.0  39.0  38.0  34.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0   0.0  -5.0  -7.0   6.0  22.0  27.0  F  F  N  F  F  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons