Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112022 220209 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.60    168.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  30.2  26.6  25.7  26.7  27.6  36.5  57.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  21.0  18.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 127.0 127.0 129.3 117.9 101.6  73.0  69.2  F  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0   0.0   4.0  11.0 -17.0  11.0  54.0 114.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  78.0  77.0  73.0  73.0  69.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -29.0 -16.0  -9.0  -2.0  10.0  15.0  39.0  14.0 VF VF  F  N  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       11.0%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.3%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.0%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.0%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       10.3%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.5%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%