Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112022 220209 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00    169.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  25.8  23.9  21.7  15.9  23.8  37.0  66.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  18.0  15.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 122.3 127.0 127.0 117.9  94.4  71.7  55.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0 -16.0   6.0   8.0 -18.0  -4.0  63.0 150.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  52.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -10.0  -5.0  -3.0   2.0   0.0  14.0 -19.0 VF  F  F  N  N  N  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%       11.8%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        5.1%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        4.6%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       16.1%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.1%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.7%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%