Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112022 220209 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20    169.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  23.5  21.7  22.0  22.4  29.7  43.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  18.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 117.3 122.0 122.0 104.4  72.2  57.0  34.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  21.0   8.0 -14.0   8.0  17.0  80.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  74.0  75.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  65.0  51.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0   4.0   6.0  14.0  18.0  34.0  60.0  64.0  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.3%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       20.9%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%       11.5%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       11.5%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       10.8%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       21.0%       11.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.3%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        3.1%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%