Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112022 220209 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.30    168.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  17.9  17.7  19.0  22.4  38.0  64.2  80.4  N  F  F  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 112.3 103.6  82.7  61.7  32.6  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0 -11.0 -18.0 -14.0   8.0  51.0 114.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  53.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   7.0   4.0  14.0  25.0  37.0 157.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%       13.9%       12.1%
 25kt / 24h       17.5%       43.3%       30.4%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%       34.3%       25.9%
 35kt / 24h       17.5%       34.3%       25.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       32.0%       16.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       36.8%       21.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.9%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        3.3%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%